Pair #2743

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5600

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MLEE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22259

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8700
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -72.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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