Pair #274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-DAL

Will Dallas Stars win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2883630

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Dallas Stars win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-DAL

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 317506

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas Stars wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:37Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Dallas must have won the Western Conference Finals (as the Western Conference representative in the Finals). So Stanley Cup win → Western Conference Finals win. The reverse does not hold (could win Western Conference but lose the Stanley Cup Finals).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -36.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -41.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:38:47Z

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