Pair #2735

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4467

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13948

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:44Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish. Finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, but the reverse is not true. Actually top-10 implies making the cut, not the other way around — but the question asks about A implying B and B implying A. Top 10 → made cut is true, but that means consequent would be KXPGAMAKECUT if antecedent is KXPGATOP10. However Event A here is MAKECUT and Event B is TOP10, so no implication from A to B; but B does imply A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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