Pair #2726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4724

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13948

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:24Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are logically independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -28.19% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -32.50% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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