Pair #2724

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28519

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:24Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading Round 1 at the Houston Open are logically independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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