Pair #2715

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8990

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2799

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-10 final finish (could miss cut or fall in later rounds). A top-10 finish does not require having led after Round 1. Neither direction holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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