Pair #2709

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are independent events. The Houston Open is not a major, so neither result necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -32.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -36.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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