Pair #2707

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 206

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require making the cut at the Houston Open (a non-major), and making the cut at the Houston Open does not imply winning a major. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -56.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -60.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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