Pair #2706

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8990

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 of the Texas Children's Houston Open, a non-major event. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 49.77% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +45.49% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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