Pair #2705

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1297

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: The Texas Children's Houston Open is not a major. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to finishing top 5 in this non-major event. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -78.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -82.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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