Pair #2704

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2799

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:01:08Z

Reasoning: The Texas Children's Houston Open is not a major tournament, so finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in this non-major event. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -88.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -92.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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