Pair #2703

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 206

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors is entirely separate from making the cut at the Houston Open, which is not a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -96.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -100.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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