Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655
YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8990
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors is entirely separate from leading after Round 1 of the Houston Open, which is not a major. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
364.78%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.7900
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
+360.57%
PROFITABLE