Pair #27

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15858

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win more major tournaments in 2026?

Series: KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T14:00:00Z
Volume: 566

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins more major tournaments than Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: Winning a tennis Grand Slam does not necessarily mean Sinner wins more majors than the three golfers combined — the golfers could collectively win more. And winning more majors than the golfers combined doesn't require winning any Grand Slam (though it would require at least one). No strict logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 98.97% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5800
Days to maturity: 289
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: +94.80% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:49:43Z

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