Pair #2696

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR24MICSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Michelsen vs Sinner : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-24T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3803

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Michelsen vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, or US Open) has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open Round of 16 match, which is not a Grand Slam event. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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