Pair #2695

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 199273

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR24MICSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Michelsen vs Sinner : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-24T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3803

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the Michelsen vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z

Reasoning: To win the Miami Open, Sinner must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 16 match against Michelsen. If he wins the Miami Open, he necessarily won this match. The reverse is not true — winning the R16 match does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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