Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?
Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 24613
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPMATCH-26MAR24MICSIN-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the Michelsen vs Sinner : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-24T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3803
YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the Michelsen vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z
Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30, 2026 does not require winning this specific Round of 16 match, and winning this match does not guarantee being #1 ranked on Jun 30. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
112.30%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9400
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
+108.08%
PROFITABLE