Pair #2692

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11290

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 32781

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:49Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31, 2026 does not require winning the Miami Open, and winning the Miami Open does not guarantee being #1 ranked at year end. These are correlated but neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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