Pair #269

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-OTT

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 238931

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ottawa Senators wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-OTT

Will the Ottawa Senators be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 64793

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Ottawa Senators are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals requires having made the playoffs. So if Ottawa wins the ECF, they must have been a playoff qualifier. The reverse is not true — making the playoffs does not imply winning the ECF.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:26:53Z

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