Antecedent (if this happens)
KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU
Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2434
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXWTAMATCH-26MAR24BENGAU-GAU
Will Coco Gauff win the Bencic vs Gauff : Quarterfinal match?
Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-03-25T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3866
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Coco Gauff wins the Bencic vs Gauff professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:29Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the WTA Miami Quarterfinal — Miami is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami QF does not imply winning a Grand Slam.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-50.65%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5100
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-54.93%
BELOW HURDLE