Pair #2689

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU

Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2434

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR24BENGAU-GAU

Will Coco Gauff win the Bencic vs Gauff : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-03-25T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3866

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins the Bencic vs Gauff professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the WTA Miami Quarterfinal — Miami is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami QF does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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