Pair #2685

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11887

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR24SABBAP-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs Baptiste : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-24T17:00:00Z
Volume: 53507

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Baptiste professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the WTA Miami Quarterfinal — Miami is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami QF does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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