Pair #2680

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-MBO

Will Victoria Mboko win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Victoria Mboko
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 92179

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Victoria Mboko wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR24MBOMUC-MBO

Will Victoria Mboko win the Mboko vs Muchova : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Victoria Mboko
Expiration: 2026-03-24T17:00:00Z
Volume: 73913

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Victoria Mboko wins the Mboko vs Muchova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is a completely different tournament from the WTA Miami Quarterfinal match. Neither implies the other — they are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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