Pair #268

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-OTT

Will Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1324554

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-OTT

Will Ottawa Senators win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3852

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Ottawa Senators win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not logically necessitate winning the Atlantic Division — a team can win the Cup as a wild card. Winning the Atlantic Division does not logically necessitate winning the Stanley Cup. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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