Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-OTT
Will Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1324554
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-OTT
Will the Ottawa Senators be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 64793
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Ottawa Senators are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:17Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having made the playoffs. So if Ottawa wins the Stanley Cup, they must have been a playoff qualifier. The reverse is not true — making the playoffs does not imply winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.98%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$2.0000
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.20%
BELOW HURDLE