Pair #266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-OTT

Will Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1324554

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If the Ottawa Senators win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-OTT

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Ottawa Senators
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 238931

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ottawa Senators wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Senators must have won the Eastern Conference Finals. Winning the Cup logically necessitates winning the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse is not true — they could win the ECF but lose the Stanley Cup Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T10:52:04Z

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