Pair #2654

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2024

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 801727

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:49Z

Reasoning: The Texas Children's Houston Open is not a major. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Houston Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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