Pair #2647

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 779797

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:49Z

Reasoning: The Texas Children's Houston Open is not a major. No logical necessity exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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