Pair #2645

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 658646

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:49Z

Reasoning: The Texas Children's Houston Open is not a major. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Houston Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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