Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-STHE
Will Sahith Theegala win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 880119
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sahith Theegala wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:35Z
Reasoning: Winning a major does not imply winning the Houston Open, and winning the Houston Open does not imply winning a major. No logical dependency in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
0.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
214
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-4.28%
BELOW HURDLE