Pair #2633

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1416464

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Tour major does not imply winning the Houston Open (a separate non-major event), and winning the Houston Open does not imply winning a major. These are independent tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 9.14% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +4.86% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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