Pair #2632

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1416464

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not imply winning the Houston Open, and winning the Houston Open (a non-major) does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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