Pair #263

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-EDM

Will Edmonton Oilers win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 55564

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-EDM

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 320

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Edmonton Oilers wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: The President's Trophy goes to the team with the best overall NHL record. A team can win the President's Trophy without winning their division (if another team in the division has a better record but the President's Trophy winner is in a different division — actually the President's Trophy winner has the best record league-wide, but that doesn't mean they win their division if a division-mate also has a high record... wait, actually if they have the best record in the league they must have the best record in their division too). On reflection, having the best record in the league necessarily means having the best record in one's own division, so winning the President's Trophy implies winning the Pacific Division. But winning the Pacific Division does not imply winning the President's Trophy.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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