Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187008
YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:20Z
Reasoning: Winning a PGA major does not require winning the Houston Open, and winning the Houston Open is not a major. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
11.13%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9400
Days to maturity:
214
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
+6.85%
PROFITABLE