Pair #2620

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187008

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:20Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Houston Open, and winning the Houston Open is not a major so it has no bearing on the top-10-in-majors market. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 50.78% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +46.57% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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