Pair #2618

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 230432

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major does not require winning the Houston Open, and winning the Houston Open (a non-major) does not constitute winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.51% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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