Pair #2616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR23CERMED-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Cerundolo vs Medvedev : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 100309

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the Cerundolo vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR23CERMED-1-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not necessitate winning the match (Medvedev could lose sets 2 and 3). Winning the match does not necessitate winning set 1 (he could lose set 1 and win sets 2 and 3).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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