Pair #2614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR23CERMED-1-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 329657

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is entirely independent of winning set 1 in a Miami Open match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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