Pair #2613

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13148

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR23CERMED-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Cerundolo vs Medvedev : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 100309

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the Cerundolo vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning this Miami Open match, and winning this Miami Open match does not require winning a Grand Slam. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -63.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -68.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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