Pair #2612

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13148

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR23CERMED-1-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is entirely independent of winning set 1 in a Miami Open Round of 32 match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -64.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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