Pair #2610

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR23CERMED-1-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 41704

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the Miami Open does not require winning set 1 against Cerundolo specifically (Medvedev could lose that set and still win the match, or could win the tournament without facing Cerundolo if Cerundolo withdrew). Winning set 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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