Pair #2608

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-DMED

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR23CERMED-1-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-23T18:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins set 1 in the Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31, 2026 does not require winning any specific set, and winning a set in a March 2026 match does not necessitate being #1 ranked at year end.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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