Pair #2603

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-ZHE

Will Qinwen Zheng win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Qinwen Zheng
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 23414

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Qinwen Zheng wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23SABZHE-ZHE

Will Qinwen Zheng win the Sabalenka vs Zheng : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Qinwen Zheng
Expiration: 2026-03-23T21:20:00Z
Volume: 3760

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Qinwen Zheng wins the Sabalenka vs Zheng professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:45Z

Reasoning: The French Open and the WTA Miami Round of 16 match are entirely separate tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -103.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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