Pair #2600

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MAND

Will Mirra Andreeva win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2871

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23ANDMBO-AND

Will Mirra Andreeva win the Andreeva vs Mboko : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-03-23T17:00:00Z
Volume: 6224

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins the Andreeva vs Mboko professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a WTA Miami R16 match. Miami is not a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not require winning Miami matches.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -44.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -48.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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