Pair #2595

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11887

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23SABZHE-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs Zheng : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-23T21:20:00Z
Volume: 9615

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Zheng professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open R16 match. These are entirely separate events with no dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -40.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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