Pair #2594

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 331372

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23SABZHE-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs Zheng : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-23T21:20:00Z
Volume: 9615

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Zheng professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:28Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open R16 match. These are separate tournaments with no dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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