Pair #2588

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23CRIPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Cristian vs Pegula : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-23T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3344

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Cristian vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open R16 match. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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