Pair #2587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 97143

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23CRIPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Cristian vs Pegula : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-23T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3344

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the Cristian vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:28Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open R16 match. These are separate tournaments with no dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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