Pair #2585

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-AANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3038

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR23ANIBEN-ANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win the Anisimova vs Bencic : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-03-23T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3608

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins the Anisimova vs Bencic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-23T08:00:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open R16 match. These are entirely separate events with no dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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