Pair #258

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-EDM

Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2103119

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-EDM

Will Edmonton Oilers win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 55564

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Pacific Division (wild card entry is possible). Winning the Pacific Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 27.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +23.64% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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