Pair #257

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-EDM

Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2103119

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-EDM

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 320

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Edmonton Oilers wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy, and winning the President's Trophy does not require winning the Stanley Cup. These are independent achievements.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 26.85% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +22.64% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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